The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) was held in Beijing from October 20 to 23, 2025. At the session, members heard and discussed the work report delivered by Xi Jinping on behalf of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, and deliberated and adopted the Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2026-2030).

1.Strategic Objectives for the "15th Five-Year Plan" Period

The plenum concluded that the coming half-decade will be crucial for making "decisive progress" in the longer-term goal of basically realizing socialist modernization​ by 2035. The directive for the period is to comprehensively advance the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through Chinese modernization. This entails a balanced approach to development and security, coordinating the Five-Sphere Integrated Plan​ (economic, political, cultural, social, and ecological advancement) and the Four Comprehensives​ (completing a moderately prosperous society, deepening reform, advancing the rule of law, and strengthening party discipline) strategic layouts.

The plenum emphasized adhering to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, with core tenets including keeping economic development as the central task, making high-quality development the central theme, using reform and innovation as the fundamental driving force, aiming to meet the people’s growing needs for a better life, and ensuring strict Party self-governance as the fundamental guarantee.

The economic goal is defined as achieving effective qualitative enhancement and reasonable quantitative growth. Societally, the aim is to make solid strides in all-round human development​ and common prosperity.

The specific, quantifiable objectives for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period include achieving significant progress in high-quality development, attaining a substantial increase in the level of sci-tech self-reliance and self-improvement, making new breakthroughs in deepening reform across the board, witnessing a notable rise in the degree of social civility, ensuring continuous improvement in people’s quality of life, making new major advances in building a Beautiful China, and establishing a more solidified national security barrier.

Framed as a "bridge" between past achievements and future goals, the 15th Five-Year Plan will build on the successes of the 14th Five-Year Plan while adapting to emerging challenges. Its successful implementation is expected to lay a solid foundation for realizing the 2035 vision—where China’s economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities, composite national power, and international influence will rise significantly, with per capita GDP reaching the level of a moderately developed country.

2.Navigating a Shifting Landscape: Historical and Global Dimensions

①Historical Context: A Pivotal Link

Convened at the five-year plan transition watershed, the Fourth Plenum hailed the 14th Five-Year Plan’s landmark achievements. During this period, China’s economic, technological, and national strength hit new highs, laying a solid foundation for the Second Centenary Goal.

The 15th Five-Year Plan carries the critical mandate of bridging past and future: consolidating modernization gains and advancing comprehensively. Plenary documents stressed understanding the "Two Establishments"’ decisive significance, calling for strengthening the "Four Consciousnesses" (political integrity, big-picture thinking, core alignment, central unity), enhancing the "Four Confidences" (path, theory, system, culture of socialism with Chinese characteristics), and steadfastly upholding the "Two Upholds".

②The Global Context: Turning Uncertainty into Certainty

The plenum recognized that the 15th Five-Year Plan era will unfold amid profound, complex shifts in the international landscape—characterized by both strategic opportunities and heightened risk challenges, with uncertainties on the rise.​

Yet the assessment reaffirmed that China's economic fundamentals remain sound, defined by inherent stability, distinctive advantages, strong resilience, and enormous potential. To counter external headwinds, the nation intends to leverage institutional strengths: a super-sized market, complete industrial system, and abundant talent pool. This strategy seeks to convert global uncertainties into domestic certainty—a goal to be advanced through institutional opening-up, using high-standard international rules to redefine China's engagement in the global economic cycle.

3.Three Pillars of the "15th Five-Year Plan" Strategy

①Building a Modern Industrial System through Sci-Tech Innovation

A top priority is forging a modern industrial system and fortifying the real economy. The plan emphasizes intelligent, green, integrated development, aiming for global leadership in manufacturing, aerospace, transportation, cyberspace—while maintaining a reasonable manufacturing share.​

Parallel to this is high-level sci-tech self-reliance. The plenum urged seizing the new technological revolution by coordinating strong education, sci-tech, and high-caliber talent development. Key goals: boost national innovation efficiency, enhance indigenous innovation, nurture new quality productive forces (via original innovation, core technology breakthroughs, sci-tech-industrial integration). International coverage notes this spans cutting-edge and upgraded traditional sectors, from smart manufacturing to green steel.​

②Reshaping the Domestic Demand System and Deepening Reforms

Building a robust domestic market stands as the cornerstone for accelerating the new development pattern, where domestic circulation plays a leading role. The plan enshrines expanding domestic demand as a strategic pillar, linking livelihood improvements with efforts to stimulate consumption and investment. The goal is to foster a virtuous cycle: new demand guiding new supply, and new supply in turn creating new demand.​

This requires advancing a high-level socialist market economy. Critical tasks include energizing all types of market entities, improving market-based allocation of production factors, and enhancing macroeconomic governance effectiveness. Removing institutional barriers that hamper the development of a unified national market is identified as a critical step.

③Risk Prevention and a Modern Security System

Reflecting a heightened focus on stability, the plenum stressed the need to resolutely meet the annual economic and social development targets. Macro policies are directed to sustain efforts and add force when appropriate​ to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations. Specific measures include implementing policies to support businesses, carrying out campaigns to boost consumption, ensuring basic living needs and grassroots operations, and proactively yet prudently defusing local government debt risks.

On a broader scale, the plan calls for modernizing national security systems and capabilities to build a higher-standard Peaceful China. This entails implementing a holistic national security outlook, strengthening capacities in key security domains, upgrading public safety governance, and advancing the social governance system.

Conclusion: A Blueprint for Certainty

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee has laid out a comprehensive, multi-dimensional strategic framework for China’s next phase of development. By integrating technological innovation with industrial upgrading, aligning domestic demand expansion with institutional reforms, and solidly linking development to security, China’s leadership aims to steer the nation steadily toward its 2035 modernization objectives.

For investors, key opportunities lie in: policy-backed tech (domestic computing power, industrial machinery) and consumption/industries benefiting from competition reforms. Risks include policy implementation gaps, geopolitical headwinds, and capital market volatility—factors closely tied to the plan’s success.

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